Cisco

SPOTLIGHT: Cisco expects online video to drive global traffic increase

Pete Wylie — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:32:32 -0500

Cisco estimated global internet traffic in 2012 will be six times current levels - a good reason to buy its new ASR 9000 router, which can move up to 6.4 terabytes per second of traffic, according to the company. Cisco also reported the server, which stands to substantially increase online video performance, can handle six times the traffic of existing solutions, took four years to develop and cost the company $200 million. [Ed. - And if you didn't get the message, Cisco was kind enough to robo call to make sure you did...]

The ASR 9000 and competing products sure to be brought to the market in response will enable large traffic increase on networks and strengthen the edge in locations they are deployed. Cisco has continued to cite online video demand as the single biggest traffic growth driver.

Increased network capacity on the edges, made possible by the ASR 9000 and other routers, should improve streaming capabilities and delivery times across many online video platforms. If anyone can afford to buy 'em right now...

For more:
- the Wall Street Journal has a full article here

Cisco: Video to pump global IP traffic 6x by 2012

Doug Mohney — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 00:19:52 -0400

Cisco has created a report predicting global IP traffic will climb up to more than half a zettabyte (522 extabytes) by 2012, with growth being driven by video traffic and social networking in the consumer market. But, will it?

This reporter is having some déjà vu all over again back to those dot.com days where insane predictions of traffic doubling resulted in massive backbone and fiber deployments.

Cisco has generated a Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast over the next four years which dovetails quite nicely with the company's pronouncements at CES of visual networking - the combination of video, web 2.0 social networking and collaborative applications -- being the Next Big Thing.

According to Cisco's crystal ball, Internet video traffic alone will be 400 times the traffic carried by the U.S. Internet backbone in 2000. IP traffic is alleged to increase at a combined annual growth grate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, a doubling nearly every two years. Global business IP traffic is forecast to grow strongly at a CAGR of 35 percent from 2007, with increased broadband penetration in the small business segment and increased adoption of advanced video communication (such as Cisco's TelePresence product) as major drivers.

As much as this reporter would like to drink the kool-aid on this particular prediction, carrier grumbling to impose bandwidth limits and a general reluctance to buy capital equipment like it was 1999 is unlikely to provide the boon Cisco would like. Belt tightening due to a slowing U.S. economy and higher energy prices are also likely to place a crimp on this scenario.

For more:
- Cisco's not-fully-baked half zettabyte prophesy.

Related articles:
Zettabyte flood predicted for 2015
Comcast eyes bandwidth cap, overage charges
TWC tests metered Internet, Comcast tests traffic management solution

Cisco's Latest Video Snack

Doug Mohney — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 14:59:08 -0400

Cisco has announced it is purchasing Denmark-based DiviTech, a company in the digital-service management (DSM) business. DiviTech's technology offers content distributors--be they broadcasters, cable, or IPTV service providers--an intuitive interface for creating, modifying, and managing video networks.

Financial terms of the deal haven't been disclosed. Cisco plans to integrate DiviTech's DSM product with its ROSA network and element management solution to create an end-to-end platform to offer all the layers of digital video management in a single modular product. DiviTech's technology includes a software application that will allow service providers to centrally provision and easily deliver localized content within a specific area, such as local and regional news and/or on-demand video and services.

DiviTech may be thrilled by being acquired by Cisco, but they're not unique. The company points out that DiviTech marks Cisco's 128th acquisition and adds to previous video-connected purchases, including Scientific Atlanta, Arroyo and Tivella. DiviTech employees will have to move into Cisco's Copenhagen facility after the deal closes and they'll be integrated in as a part of the Service Provider Video Technology Group.

For more:
- Cisco announcement on DiviTech purchase
- News.com blog about Cisco's video acquisition

Related articles:
What Cisco's SA acquisition means for IPTV
Cisco rubber stamps VOD, place/time shifting

Ballmer or Time Warner? Two Heads of the Video Future

Doug Mohney — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:37:43 -0400

I don't know if the future is going to be Steve Ballmer or Time Warner.

Ballmer is predicting that in (more or less) a decade, we're going to get everything through an IP connection, including TV and print media. Of course, this is the same Microsoft CEO who spits on Apple out of impulse and says Vista is the next best thing since XP despite the fact there are a lot of people (including myself) who are Not Impressed.

On the other hand, we have Time Warner's announcement/"experiment" of tiered pricing and Comcast's 250 GB/month bandwidth cap. Bandwidth caps instinctively draw knee-jerk fire from those of use who remember when caps were in MB rather than GB. They left a bad taste in our mouths then and certainly look like a deterrent to online video downloading in the future.

Someone should give Cisco a call and see what impact it thinks bandwidth caps will have on visual networking.

If cable companies meter heavily while telcos meter much less so, the net outcome will be a rush back to unlimited bandwidth (and unlimited video usage). Verizon is supposed to be trenching in FiOS to my neighborhood over the summer and the born-again Clearwire should be available in the D.C. area by the fall, offering WiMAX to keep the DSL providers honest and local cable companies pushing towards 50 and 100 Mbps speeds. And there's always the promise of LTE in a couple of years to keep everyone honest.

One thing is for certain: A number of online video companies are literally betting their futures on the availability of lots of unfettered bandwidth. Expect the fight for (relatively) unlimited broadband to continue over the next 12 months.

- Doug